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Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency caused by the announcement of a new 28-point plan for resolving the conflict appeared – briefly – to have been stabilised. A American diplomat spoke of "substantial progress" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its countermove: an extensive attack of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.

The Cycle of Negotiation and Warfare

The chain of contrasting events captured the harsh reality of the current period. By day, negotiation efforts are waged: positive announcements are released from multiple capitals. Significant resources is expended on managing specific proposals. By night, the Kremlin clearly shows the world that, for them, war remains the key method for achieving "settlement".

Nocturnal Warfare

As military strikes progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's exposure was laid bare. Ukraine is capable of detecting missile launches from Russian territory, a capability enabled by current data. From witness perspectives, military aircraft that had been scrambled to counter approaching guided weapons streaked across the sky – modern combat jets provided to Ukraine by NATO members.

Moments later, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons engaged: multiple launches fired to intercept a hostile projectile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, most likely delivered by partner states. Every deployment shakes the surroundings, shaking the windows. The brief panic quickly transforms into resigned acknowledgment: possibly the incoming missile won't hit its mark this time, sparing the city from devastation and another blackout.

Continuous Dangers

Soon after, a automatic firearm fired at a aerial vehicle somewhere nearby, part of a mobile-fire group – probably allied-provided weaponry. Unfortunately, the bullets missed the hostile drone – it continued its flight toward its destination.

With pauses, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv greeted the daybreak reports: seven people killed, destruction and utility failures in numerous residences as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As customarily, everyone still maintained normal activities – experiencing conflict. But those entire period demonstrated Ukraine's essential dependence on Western support – a dependence that European nations are evidently unprepared to substitute in the near term.

Ineffective Peace Efforts

The detailed framework from Washington sparked intense emotion, discussion and deep concern – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after prior negotiation attempts and international summits.

Every new proposal from Washington follows the same pattern: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, succeeds in resisting. They contain the crisis but never actually secure success. This cycle will, certainly, endure.

Strategic Calculations

It is convenient to criticize certain parties of repeatedly advocating Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the whole story. Washington works based on a principle familiar among experienced diplomats: you cannot secure via talks what you have been unable to protect through force. The White House assumes that it is unfeasible to compel Moscow to relinquish the territory that it presently holds in Ukraine's occupied territories.

The problem is that while accepting these circumstances, Washington does little to prevent Kremlin actions, through diplomacy or military means, from assuming that the situation will not evolve additionally in its benefit in the coming year.

Divergent Views

Therefore, Russian leadership is convinced that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its allies are coming close to fatigue. Their reason to accept conditions that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is almost completely absent. There may be numerous efforts to end hostilities, but they will carry on as long as Russia's government remains completely certain in the outcome.

On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still endure, progressively conceding people and territory but preventing a entire defensive failure until conditions improve in its advantage.

Existing Situation

Objectively, there are no genuine requirements for a armistice. Now, individual motivations are entering the equation: leadership ambitions to mediate resolution and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Ukrainian leadership's double obstacles – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to unite the population around the national cause against any plan Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their focus does not move to domestic problems. And although their mission will now be much harder after current events, it remains quite doubtful that this will change their overall approach.

These opposing factors are driving the talks.

Summary and Prospects

It took a only one week to kill the proposed articles of the current initiative. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by Washington, opposition by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with pacifying measures of negotiators, and finally, latest revelations, all served their function.

While new proposals based on established approaches are imminent, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter political attacks from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and reflect specific hesitation to change the course of events, if they maintain solidarity and enhance their military capacity at a much faster pace. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the predictable period, largely rely on ongoing international assistance.