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A decade after the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that split the country and triggered chaos, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.

The government and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is prepared.

That represents the warning from two leading commentators from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Institutions Unprepared

The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly fraught and seismic referendum.

"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can build support very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our islands remains very unstable."

New Title Seeks to Encourage Dialogue

The team have analysed the governmental, economic and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to encourage dialogue on the issue with a series of lectures that will bring them to Westminster soon.

"What haunts everyone, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.

"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose consequences have remained undefined because then you end up with an highly split population where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful lack clarity exactly what it is that they have gained."

Legal Framework

Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would approve.

Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is approaching, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and unionists play down the prospect, making it uncertain whether or when there could be a national vote.

Insufficient Serious Debate

Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has obscured the lack of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.

"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which could extend past that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A great deal has taken place in academia but very few politicians or activists are willing to participate with even the essentials. For instance, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"

Volume's Strategy

In the volume, none of the commentators endorses unification or the status quo. Each writes two pieces that seek objectivity in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling economic and social data, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.

Discussions cover national emblems, taxes, medical care, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The goal is to inform and provoke conversation.

"There's huge interest in the topic but there has not yet occurred a debate," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an acceptance of the notion that there might be valid points on both sides."

Parallel Votes

A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens report they prefer unity but reject increased taxation or implementing a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' British culture.

"Authorities in Dublin should establish what the plan from nationalist groups is aside from just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.

Likelihood of Public Vote

McBride believes a national vote in his generation is possible and that it might occur unexpectedly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a incompetent secretary of state who states: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"

Both nationalists and unionists have reasonable, valid points, he said. "One side will succeed in this matter and somebody will eventually lose but all factions has has valuable insights to gain from the opposing arguments."

Request for Broader Discussion

Westminster needed to engage with the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish question."